“There is reason to think the country is racing toward an extremely low level of infection. As more people have been infected, most of whom have mild or no symptoms, there are fewer Americans left to be infected. At the current trajectory, I expect Covid will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life.”
These are the words of Dr. Marty Makary, professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and Bloomberg School of Public Health, and chief medical adviser to Sesame Care. His words appeared in a Wall Street Journal article titled, “We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April” (read the entire piece here). Here’s his reasoning, printed in that WSJ article, for why we’ll have that highly sought-after herd immunity:
- “(Covid) cases are down 77% over the past six weeks.”
- “Testing has been capturing only from 10% to 25% of infections, depending on when during the pandemic someone got the virus. Applying a time-weighted case capture average of 1 in 6.5 to the cumulative 28 million confirmed cases would mean about 55% of Americans have natural immunity.”
- “As of this week, 15% of Americans have received the vaccine, and the figure is rising fast. Former Food and Drug Commissioner Scott Gottlieb estimates 250 million doses will have been delivered to some 150 million people by the end of March.”
- “Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. would also suggest much broader immunity than recognized. About 1 in 600 Americans has died of Covid-19, which translates to a population fatality rate of about 0.15%. The Covid-19 infection fatality rate is about 0.23%. These numbers indicate that roughly two-thirds of the U.S. population has had the infection.”
While we certainly aren’t doctors here at ED Publications, this information — from a doctor who works at the famed John Hopkins School of Public Health in Baltimore — is certainly some positive news on Covid. And don’t we all need some of that!
